Monday, October 28, 2013
Tonight (October 28) at 8:00 PM Eastern Time, I will be a panelist on the Wall Street Journal spreecast discussion on "How to Minimize Your Taxes in Retirement."
As taxes is not one of my stronger areas, and as the individual who developed many of the theories about tax-efficient retirement income is a fellow panelist, I've been spending the day studying taxes in retirement.
The primary resource I have been using is Dana Anspach's excellent book, Control Your Retirement Destiny.
What follows are some notes I've made for myself today regarding taxes in retirement.
Notes on a Tax-Efficient Retirement
The complication is that you want to choose a strategy which will save you the most taxes in the long-run, or more precisely- provide you with the most spending and wealth over the lifetime, as opposed to what might minimize taxes in any one particular year. But this requires planning on a lifetime basis. Generally, the optimal solution will involve smoothing year-by-year taxable income, as this is the best way to deal with the progressive tax system. Tax planning should be thought of with regard to: State and federal taxes, AMT, 3.8% Medicare surtax, means-tested Medicare Part B HI premiums, and estate planning when relevant.
It is important to think in terms of the marginal tax rate applying to each dollar of income. With exemptions and deductions (or more with itemized deductions), individuals can have 10k and joint 20k before taxes begin, and this amount is a bit more for those over 65. Then, the 10% marginal tax rate applies for taxable income up to about 9k for individuals and 18k for married filing jointly. The 15% marginal tax rate applies for the next portion of taxable income up to 36k for individuals and 72.5k for married filing jointly. Up to this level, as well, the long-term capital gains tax rate is 0%.
In considering a contribution to a tax-deferred account vs. a Roth account: compare potential tax savings today in terms of marginal tax rates, vs. likely tax rates that would be applied in the future.
If tax rates will go down later on, which would probably result from someone being in a lower tax bracket post retirement, then tax-deferred may be better. Concerns that the government will raise tax rates will make Roth accounts look more attractive.
Social Security Benefit Taxation:
First calculate combined income:
Combined income = AGI + nontaxable interest + ½ Social Security benefits
Individuals: 25k – 34k, tax on up to 50% of benefits; more than 34k, tax on up to 85% of benefits
Joint return: 32k – 44k, tax on up to 50% of benefits; more than 44k, tax on up to 85% of benefits
Tax-deferred withdrawals: affect Social Security tax, Roth withdrawals: do not affect Social Security tax
Worth repeating: Tax-deferred withdrawals have the disadvantage of making Social Security benefits taxable as well, unlike Roth accounts
The “tax torpedo” is that RMDs from tax-deferred accounts could have a double impact of also causing more of the Social Security benefit to be taxable, which effectively pushes the marginal tax rate up for tax-deferred withdrawals.
Delaying Social Security also has tax implications, and for many people the implications may be advantageous, especially if retirement income will be around 90k or less. The idea is to delay Social Security and spend down the tax-deferred assets (or convert them to a Roth) before Social Security begins in order to reduce the “tax torpedo” effect of IRA withdrawals. As well, greater Social Security later on will reduce the need for selling assets and therefore the need to pay taxes after 70.
If one retires before 70, delaying Social Security + Roth conversions could be a good strategy as income will otherwise be low in these years. One could also look at Roth Conversions from 65 to 70, may benefit from period certain income annuity with exclusion ratio, defer Social Security, no work income, and focus on reducing the tax-deferred accounts.
Do tax projections before the end of the year and think about matters from a lifetime perspective
Roth conversions: pay tax on traditional account to move over to Roth, but this can be beneficial in years when marginal tax rate is low. In other words, convert enough to fill up deductions and potentially even the 10% and 15% tax brackets
Take IRA withdrawals as needed to fill up deductions, 10% or even 15% tax bracket
Roth IRA: no RMDs, income doesn’t affect Social Security benefit taxation or Medicare Part B premiums, and efficient from estate tax planning perspective
Taxable accounts: Assets with qualified dividends and long-term capital gains
Tax-deferred: assets with interest payments and non-qualified dividends taxed as ordinary income.
Marginal tax rates apply to interest income and qualified dividends, and long-term capital gains and qualified dividends are taxes at a lower rate
Current considerations with interest rates so low, that there may be less taxable income
If interest rates rise, holding bonds to maturity in tax-deferred accounts may benefit from reducing the value of bonds to reduce RMDs
Intelligent Withdrawal Sequencing
Conventional Wisdom: Withdraw from taxable accounts first, then tax-deferred, then tax-free
Inefficient investing during retirement: “return drag” from paying taxes versus delaying payment
Conventional wisdom is usually fairly appropriate, with the caveat that everyone’s situation is different, and also that it can be beneficial to take from tax deferred accounts up to deductible amounts
In a worst case scenario for market returns, it may be beneficial to delay taxes as long as possible, i.e. no Roth conversions. But this point requires more research
Blanchett and Kaplan find, with many stylized assumptions, that retirement income can be increased by over 8% with a tax-efficient strategy compared to a tax neutral strategy with everything divided equally between location and withdrawal sequence.
Managing Capital Gains
There can be benefits both from capital gains harvesting and from capital loss harvesting
3.8% Medicare Surtax
Applies to singles with MAGI of 200k and more, or joint with MAGI of 250k or more
Tax is applied to investment income in excess of this amount (but not municipal bonds)
IRA distributions (or Roth conversions) are not directly subject to this tax, but they can push up MAGI and leave more investment income from other sources subject to this tax
Impacts: municipal bonds are more attractive, Roth conversions may be more attractive
Health Savings Accounts
Only apply to certain high-deductible health plans, but also provide a tax-deferred vehicle which is tax deductible and comes out tax free for eligible medical expenses. Up to $6450 for families