tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post4154524041959010829..comments2023-10-30T11:57:40.433-04:00Comments on Wade Pfau's Retirement Researcher Blog: Greatest Hits Part 2: The Bond MarketAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04168922717655562721noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-15079887991118966702014-01-19T00:11:36.472-05:002014-01-19T00:11:36.472-05:00Indeed Wade, what we have both seen in both our da...Indeed Wade, what we have both seen in both our data sets: what returns give, volatility takes away.<br /><br />This is true as you mention for the 4% rule approach, and also true in a dynamically adjusting longevity based approach as well.<br /><br />Great summary from a global perspective!Larry Franknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-75867504388661682272014-01-18T22:21:38.365-05:002014-01-18T22:21:38.365-05:00Larry,
I agree, but unfortunately the other bond ...Larry,<br /><br />I agree, but unfortunately the other bond data is not available. <br /><br />Certainly with the 4% rule, using intermediate term government bonds (5 years) is what allowed the 4% rule to have survived historically. When you replace it with longer-term bonds or corporate bonds, the 4% rule did not always work. The added volatility offset any higher yields.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04168922717655562721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-50639737587452967212014-01-18T12:43:22.455-05:002014-01-18T12:43:22.455-05:00Hi Wade,
You mention that the bond term in general...Hi Wade,<br />You mention that the bond term in general is 20 years. There is more price volatility with those types of bonds. Fama had done interesting work for Dimensional http://www.dfaus.com/philosophy/dimensions.html & http://www.dfaus.com/firm/academics.html and finds that if you want stock like volatility you should use stocks. Short term bonds have less volatility and that is the purpose for use in portfolios; and, one can adjust faster to rising or falling interest rates when short term bonds mature. Thus, his argument is that seeking return should not be the sole objective, rather tweaking the overall portfolio characteristics to align with what the individual is comfortable with.<br /><br />This said, it would be interesting to see a similar chart using notes (i.e., 5 year terms) for additional insight on bonds.Larry Franknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-68763599559009873082014-01-17T04:48:07.405-05:002014-01-17T04:48:07.405-05:00A good chartered accountants or good financial con...A good chartered accountants or good financial consultants are good for businesses. Not just that you must look for a reliable partners. I must say I have such services from a good chartered accountant firm and they know their job.<br /><a href="http://www.berkmans.com.au/%20business-financial-management.htm" rel="nofollow"><b>financial planning management services central coast</b></a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00394958183316421383noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-47651300703101834972014-01-14T13:29:09.597-05:002014-01-14T13:29:09.597-05:00Fred, that's an interesting point about the im...Fred, that's an interesting point about the impact of fund flows. Thanks!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04168922717655562721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-50087529453863460882014-01-14T13:27:45.502-05:002014-01-14T13:27:45.502-05:00Hi,
The definition of bonds is provided on page 4...Hi,<br /><br />The definition of bonds is provided on page 4 of this document:<br /><br />http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCsQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fdatalab.morningstar.com%2Fknowledgebase%2Faspx%2Ffiles%2FDMS.doc&ei=S4DVUtjsFZOvsAT2pIDwBQ&usg=AFQjCNHIFQR6aq7H5NwUwTV-na4yrzOGxQ&sig2=SaxBhE7nnfcDbrXktARI6w&bvm=bv.59378465,d.cWc&cad=rja<br /><br />Briefly, they aim to use government bonds with approximately 20 years until maturity, though there are exceptions when 20 year maturities are not available. So it's relatively long term government bonds.<br /><br />This is presuming a bond fund. I use total returns which captures interest and price changes.<br /><br />It would be great to test about bond ladders, but this data only has total returns. I don't know yields to maturity. This makes it hard. As these are nominal bonds, inflation would eat away at real returns even when building a retirement income bond ladder. <br /><br />The threat of prolonged high inflation is not really captured in the Monte Carlo simulations I typically use, as inflation volatility in the past US data has been relatively tame.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04168922717655562721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-55369001983911339402014-01-14T13:23:31.665-05:002014-01-14T13:23:31.665-05:00Bond funds- a bad idea. I couldn't possibly co...Bond funds- a bad idea. I couldn't possibly cover all the negative aspects of funds, although even the costs at Vanguard are too much for me. The best article I have ever seen, The Wall Street Journal, 7 July 1992, the Your Money Matters column: "Sometimes Individual Bonds Are Better." INVESTMENT ILLUSIONS by Martin Fridson, THE GREAT MUTUAL FUND TRAP by Gregory Baer and THE ONLY GUIDE TO A WINNING BOND STRATEGY YOU'LL EVER NEED by Larry Swedroe all have chapters on the defects of bond funds.<br /><br />Investors are usually concerned about what happens when interest rates rise, justifiably. But what happens when rates fall? A bunch of new investors (foolishly) think they can capture the higher rate offered by the fund and make purchases. All the fund manager can do is purchase bonds at the current rate and everyone receives a rate somewhere between the old and new. Unless of course the management is so ethical they close the fund to new investors. But mutual funds benefit by maximizing funds under management so.... FredAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-37518289110801384192014-01-14T09:18:04.683-05:002014-01-14T09:18:04.683-05:00Could you please characterize what you mean by the...Could you please characterize what you mean by the "bond market" in your analyses? Are you referring to indices of all of a country's bonds and presuming that assets are held in bond funds? And what sorts of bonds (investment grade corporate, municipal, sovereign debt, high yield, and so forth) are being reflected? This makes a lot of difference.<br /><br />Given all of your recent discussion about bond funds and bond ladders, it would be useful to see how the country-by-country results would be different for portfolios (and perhaps ladders) of bonds held to maturity rather than marked to market in mutual funds. I would guess that it would be difficult to compile this from available databases.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com