tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post6512495194581008792..comments2023-10-30T11:57:40.433-04:00Comments on Wade Pfau's Retirement Researcher Blog: Lower Future Returns and Safe Withdrawal RatesAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04168922717655562721noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-3134619188656234592012-04-26T03:03:03.622-04:002012-04-26T03:03:03.622-04:00Thanks David. I'm looking at variable withdra...Thanks David. I'm looking at variable withdrawal rates a lot lately, so please stay tuned.<br /><br />The issue of actual withdrawal patterns is a bit tricky. There are some informal surveys out there, but I think we really need more research on this. Existing work is insufficient. I covered some of this here:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/newsletters12/How_Do_Spending_Needs_Evolve_During_Retirement.php" rel="nofollow">http://www.advisorperspectives.com/newsletters12/How_Do_Spending_Needs_Evolve_During_Retirement.php</a><br /><br />Thanks for reading.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04168922717655562721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-65986181071633568302012-04-25T09:47:33.356-04:002012-04-25T09:47:33.356-04:00Wade,
Interesting analysis that is eye opening.
...Wade,<br /><br />Interesting analysis that is eye opening.<br /><br />I agree with John that variable withdrawal rate simulations would be very interesting -- especially since that is probably closer to reality. I wonder if there is good data out there on the common withdrawal patterns of retirees...ie. Do they tend withdraw more early, etc.<br /><br />I especially like your probabilistic approach towards retirement failure. There's always risk and it often times makes a lot of sense to take on a little bit extra risk for a substantial gain. <br /><br />Thanks,<br />DavidDavid Hoodhttp://www.beginner-investing-made-easy.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-83883916490710536242012-04-23T20:42:14.771-04:002012-04-23T20:42:14.771-04:00Thanks, though there will be tax implications when...Thanks, though there will be tax implications when withdrawing from your IRA, there isn't anything to stop you from re-investing the excess amount in a taxable account. I think this mostly gets into the issue of the implications of taxes on safe withdrawal rates, and that is not something I've explored too deeply yet. One of these days...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04168922717655562721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-28382782017388372092012-04-23T20:04:59.494-04:002012-04-23T20:04:59.494-04:00It might be prudent to comment on the affect the g...It might be prudent to comment on the affect the government required withdrawl rate ( minimum distribution rate) might have on someones portfolio as they may be forced to take out more than they want over time?<br />What impact might this have on ensuring that the portfolio lasts longer than prescribed?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-30567639920100397212012-04-15T04:02:53.513-04:002012-04-15T04:02:53.513-04:00Thanks a lot,
I have both of Jim Otar's books,...Thanks a lot,<br />I have both of Jim Otar's books, but I must admit that a glaring hole in my reading is that I haven't read his books yet. I do need to do that sometime. Thank you.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04168922717655562721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-3750745635411822722012-04-15T04:01:39.857-04:002012-04-15T04:01:39.857-04:00Thanks John,
You've made some good points. Fi...Thanks John,<br /><br />You've made some good points. Finally, I'm getting started on looking at this, though my first attempt is more basic than what you are writing about here. Thanks for sharing.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04168922717655562721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-79144362075204780802012-04-15T03:59:27.046-04:002012-04-15T03:59:27.046-04:00Drum, thanks, and thanks for the question. I'v...Drum, thanks, and thanks for the question. I've started addressing this in my <a href="http://wpfau.blogspot.jp/2012/04/withdrawing-constant-percentage-of.html" rel="nofollow">newest blog entry</a>.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04168922717655562721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-58815017031350511402012-04-13T20:25:25.362-04:002012-04-13T20:25:25.362-04:00Wade: I cannot begin to tell you how helpful your ...Wade: I cannot begin to tell you how helpful your blog is. You clearly delineate the issues in planning for a successful retirement. Have you read Jim Otar's work? I see similarities in your approach and his work. I would appreciate your thoughts on his book on retirement income generation and his modeling. thanks.<br /><br />SC_investorAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-3045359841461271002012-04-13T13:05:52.363-04:002012-04-13T13:05:52.363-04:00A logical retirement would be to have required inc...A logical retirement would be to have required income baselined by (eg.) not taking social security until 70 (delay gives about 7.2%/yr real return) and supplementing that if needed with TIPS ladder or annuity. Since remainder is risk capital one would want to maximize this by avoiding reverse dollar cost averaging. With baseline spending covered one can take larger payouts when market is up and much less when it is down. My historical (1926-2010) 30 yr simulations suggest one gets 5%, worst sequence, 9% mean and median, incomes with taking 2.5% of current balance when real capital < starting value and 10% when > starting value. All in real dollars. <br /><br />Also works with a floor of 2.5 of initial capital. <br /><br />It would be nice to see some variable withdrawal rate simulations from someone with your capabilities. Your current work inadvertently implies reverse dollar cost averaging is a good strategy, I don't think this is what you intend.<br />Thanks for all the good work. JohnJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05844362968511348790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-65710459979983022302012-04-13T12:08:32.305-04:002012-04-13T12:08:32.305-04:00Great post,always appreciate your work and insight...Great post,always appreciate your work and insight. How does the withdrawal rate change if using a fixed % withdrawal rather then inflation adjusted?<br />Thanks, DrumAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-81215923840116822482012-04-13T10:16:35.688-04:002012-04-13T10:16:35.688-04:00Thank you Bob!Thank you Bob!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04168922717655562721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-12198895927241437932012-04-13T09:09:30.632-04:002012-04-13T09:09:30.632-04:00Sorry about the deletion (my error). What I wante...Sorry about the deletion (my error). What I wanted to say:<br /><br />As always, Wade -- both excellent and useful. Thanks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-43857660403922140682012-04-13T02:51:34.628-04:002012-04-13T02:51:34.628-04:00Dick,
Thanks for the reminder! I haven't for...Dick,<br /><br />Thanks for the reminder! I haven't forgotten about those graphs and I will talk about them again at some point.<br /><br />Best wishes, WadeAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04168922717655562721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6167053228142922997.post-49334643887471122782012-04-13T00:38:24.566-04:002012-04-13T00:38:24.566-04:00Wade --
Terrific! In all of this, uncertainty abo...Wade --<br /><br />Terrific! In all of this, uncertainty about future return-rate means is a BIG issue, and in this entry you're right on it.<br /><br />Those graphs of iso-withdrawal-rate lines of yours, on which one can superimpose frontiers, or model portfolios, or individual portfolios based on one's own future market assumptions, are superb. I think you should tell the readers -- or if you did, I'll repeat it -- you have a whole treasure chest of those iso graphs for various assumptions such as time horizon and failure rate, in your blog entry of last Aug. 24 with the title beginning "Capital..." I think a reader can go right to it with this link:<br /> http://wpfau.blogspot.com/2011_08_24_archive.html<br /><br />Dick PurcellDick Purcellhttp://www.portfoliopathfinder.comnoreply@blogger.com