Thursday, November 20, 2014

MarketWatch Panel Discussion with Bob Powell, Dirk Cotton, and Joe Tomlinson

In October, Dirk Cotton, Joe Tomlinson, and I joined Bob Powell in New York City for a panel discussion about retirement income.

 The end results are now available online.  The MarketWatch Team produced four columns about the discussion, and there are short video segments interspersed throughout:

 Robert Powell: Loading up on Stocks -- After you Retire

 Elizabeth O'Brien: Do You Need a 'Safety-First' Retirement Plan?

 Robert Powell: Is Your Retirement 'Fully-Funded'?

 Elizabeth O'Brien: The Retirement Risks You Can't Predict

 See more at the MarketWatch Retirement Adviser website.
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5 comments:

  1. JDCNovember 22, 2014 at 11:32 AM

    Wade

    Here is a piece from O'Brien's article on safety-first:

    "“There are essentially these two completely different schools of thought about retirement income,” said Wade Pfau, professor of retirement income at the American College in Bryn Mawr, Penn. at a recent panel discussion in New York City, moderated by MarketWatch senior columnist Robert Powell.
    Those who can’t stomach a one-in-10 chance of subsisting solely on Social Security belong to the “safety first” school. Those comfortable with a roll of the dice fall into to the “probability” camp."

    Several noted financial authors support safety-first. Do you agree with the above statement that the main reason these individuals belong to the safety-first school is because they cannot stomach a 10% chance of retirees outliving their money? It appears to me that these authors instead support safety-first because they do not agree with the 90% probability of success produced by various MCS models?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownNovember 23, 2014 at 1:45 PM

      John, that's a good question. While your second point might be relevant as well, I have generally noticed the argument being made more in terms of 10% not being an acceptable failure rate for a plan.

      See for instance:

      http://wpfau.blogspot.com/2012/04/mike-zwecher-they-each-get-only-one.html

      http://wpfau.blogspot.com/2012/10/dirk-cotton-statisticians-make-worst.html

      Delete
    2. JDCNovember 25, 2014 at 10:22 AM

      OK, but Mandelbrot,Taleb, Bernstein, Bodie, Edesess, and Swedroe all advocate safety because they do not agree with the 90% probability of success.

      Delete
  2. Brain HoshowskiDecember 2, 2014 at 7:05 AM

    Hi wpfau

    Nice blog you have mentioned or posted among we.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Jeannie F.December 6, 2014 at 11:12 AM

    Hi Wade,

    I recently read a book you may find interesting called 'The Annuity Stanifesto', by Stan G. Haithcock. It's a quick easy read, but he also has a website where we've gotten lots of information (http://www.stantheannuityman.com/ ). It got my husband and I thinking about how annuities should factor in to our planning. We were really looking to better understand annuity transfer of risk contractually guaranteed strategies. I'd love to hear your opinion on annuities and the role they play in a portfolio.



    ReplyDelete